Advanced-Level Backgammon: An Outsider's Guide



Problem #2

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White opted to run one of their back men with an opening 64. Black missed the blot but nevertheless has a strong roll: 33. How can Black make the best use of it?

Candidate Moves

Our list of potential moves includes:

13/7(2)

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13/7(2), on its face, looks like the natural choice for this roll, and many players might be tempted to play it automatically. It gives Black an immediate 3-prime and blocks White's second back checker, not to mention bringing a total of 10 checkers into the zone, giving them strong attacking potential. Indeed, the main weaknesses of this play are less about what it does and much more about what it doesn't do that it could (and should):

  1. It doesn't give Black an advanced anchor, meaning White can still freely bring down builders (including their escaped back man) to develop their board.
  2. It doesn't close any points in Black's inner board, weakening Black's attacking prospects: even if Black managed to hit a builder next roll, for example, White would almost certainly re-enter immediately.
  3. It doesn't actually make a good priming structure, as the 3-prime built by this roll is fairly inflexible and will be difficult to extend in the next few turns without either slotting (risky), stripping the midpoint (very undesirable), or rolling lucky doubles (which you should never bank on).

In addition, with White's second back man still sitting on the ace-point, the only way Black can point on White's head is by breaking the bar point, leaving Black vulnerable to return shots and taking two checkers out of play; and needless to say, hitting loose isn't an effective strategy with only one inner board point closed. Ultimately, this move is deceptive in its appeal and is something of a newbie trap, so we would do well to avoid it.

24/18(2)

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24/18(2) also seems like a natural, reasonable reply—since White has almost escaped one of their back men, Black can "mirror" them by bringing out their own back men—but it's too passive, missing the valuable opportunity presented by this roll. Specifically, in choosing to run, White has foregone developing their board, which means Black has a chance to get a powerful lead in development.

Making this move, however, does not accomplish that goal: Although White's bar point isn't necessarily a bad point to hold, there are once again other points Black could make instead that are more immediately useful and don't give White an opening to consolidate their position without falling behind. For that matter, with White now having only one checker in the back compared to Black's two, Black should pivot to a more offensive game plan (i.e. attacking or priming) to prevent White from escaping the second one, thus making this defensive move yet more ill-advised for this position.

13/10(2) 6/3(2)

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13/10(2) 6/3(2) is a better development move, unstacking the heavy 6-point midpoint and creating new points in both the inner and outer boards in the process. Although this move has the right idea in that Black should play more offensively, it tries to be both an attacking play and a priming play at the same time, and ends up being a weak choice for either strategy. In more concrete terms, holding the 10-point gives Black's position more of a blocking character, as that point is chiefly useful for building primes, but the 3-point and 10-point are too far apart to be used in the same prime and thus don't work well together.

Conversely, making the 3-point, a point relatively deep in the inner board, is a good start for an attacking position, but the checkers on the 8-point and 10-point are too far away to be used in conjunction with the 6-point's spare to attack White effectively, meaning Black would have to either hit loose (despite only having two inner board points closed) or spend a few turns bringing in more checkers (giving White ample opportunity to escape). Additionally, it leaves White's outer board largely uncontested, making it easy for them to bring down builders and develop their position, and most likely safety their escaped back man in the process.

24/21(2) 8/5(2)

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24/21(2) 8/5(2) is yet more promising, giving Black a valuable advanced anchor on the Silver Point while also making the ever-important 5-point. Black's anchor puts pressure on the outer board, complicating White's plans to develop their position by threatening to hit any builders they might bring down. Black had to give up the 8-point to make the 5-point, however, leaving them with a blot on the 8-point and a rather imbalanced distribution of checkers elsewhere. It'll take a few rolls before Black can use this position to launch a solid offense, during which time White could very well escape their second back man, possibly hitting Black's blot along the way (6 rolls hit: 61, 52, 43; 16.7% chance of hitting).

24/21(2) 6/3(2)

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24/21(3) 6/3(2) improves even further upon the previous candidates, again grabbing the Silver Point but making the 3-point rather than the 5-point. The 3-point is considerably less valuable overall—it's harder to use for priming compared to the 5-point, 4-point, or bar point, for one—but it's just as useful as any other inner board point when it comes to attacking! Moreover, Black can make the 3-point without having to give up another point in the process, instead unstacking the heavy 6-point and ending up with a better checker distribution afterward.

With that being said, it'll take time to bring in the extra men needed to start an attack or to fill in the sizable gaps in Black's structure, once again giving White an opening; so although this is a reasonable play (particularly if Black is looking to play safely), it'd be best to examine the remaining moves in the list.

24/21(2) 13/10(2)

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24/21(2) 13/10(2) is the strongest and most versatile entry in this series of "anchor and unstack" plays. Unlike the 5-point and 3-point plays, making the 10-point has no real drawbacks, giving Black a strong outer board point that they can use for priming and attacking alike! Additionally, Black having the 10-point makes it that much more difficult for White to escape the other back man, since it both blocks the checker's movement and gives Black another number with which to hit should White bring their man forward. Between the offensive potential of the 10-point and the security & control offered by the advanced anchor, this is a very strong play indeed, doubly so if Black is looking to play safe!

8/5(2) 6/3(2)

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8/5(2) 6/3(2) cranks the aggression up to 11, immediately closing two inner board points! This play may seem questionable in light of some of the points discussed above, such as wanting to control White's outer board, giving up the 8-point for the 5-point, and White potentially hitting Black's blot while escaping, but this play manages to compensate for all of these factors:

  1. Black having three inner board points closed to White's one means that White MUST play more passively, even without Black sitting on the Silver Point. After all, if Black gets a hit in the next few rolls and White dances (9 rolls fail to enter: 66, 65, 63, 55, 53, 33; 25% chance to stay out), Black can double White out.
  2. Giving up the 8-point is unfortunate, but the strength of closing the inner board points (and making most of a 4-prime in the process) more than balances things out, not to mention that the leftover blot is still useful as a builder for the 4-point or bar point.
  3. Having the 3-point closed as well as the 5-point cuts the number of shots White has at the blot from 6 (61, 52, 43; 16.7% chance to hit) to 4 (61, 43; 11.1% chance to hit), and furthermore White would be tempted to use one of those rolls elsewhere (i.e. make their 10-point with 43)—not to mention the risk to White should they hit loose in Black's outer board without safetying the other blot (leaving 16 shots for Black, or a 44.4% chance to hit).

Excepting match scenarios where Black wants to avoid risk as much as possible (e.g. DMP or with a big lead in score), this is the strongest choice.

Answer

Key points

Rollouts

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Money game rollout equity table
Rollout, money game
Basic match rollout equity table
Rollout, 7-point match, score 0-0
Black-leading match rollout equity table
Rollout, 7-point match, score 5-0 (Black leading)
White-leading match rollout equity table
Rollout, 7-point match, score 0-5 (White leading)
Double match point rollout equity table
Rollout, 7-point match, score 6-6 (DMP)

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